Responding To Opportunity

I am a big fan of business strategy readings. In this economy, I don’t know if there is a more important subject. It seems most companies are making cutbacks in order to be more efficient, raise productivity, and eliminate overhead. Reevaluating your strategic position, perfecting the activities surrounding your position, and taking another look at the tradeoffs incorporated into your strategy sometimes take a back seat.

In this economy, I see a lot of companies vacating positions and different industry segments are becoming less crowded as non competitive companies exit businesses for more productive uses of capital. Take the newspaper industry as an example. After all, this is what is supposed to happen.

Creating businesses in this environment is antithetical to the lay person, but it does make sense to the next producer class. The people recognizing opportunities now will surge in prosperity as the economy corrects itself and begins a new growth period.

I am very optimistic on the future. I just wish the government would let private enterprise create the recovery and not some ridiculous spending plan that creates unsustainable government managed programs that already saddle us with more debt than George W did in the previous eight years. So much for “Change.”

Cheers.

Economics is the study of scarcity and the relationship of supply and demand. The opposite of scarcity is abundance.

The theory of “post scarcity,” or abundance, is largely a futuristic vision of a world where the cost to create is zero and the access to the means of creation is in ample supply.

In the “Social Media” world there is an abundance of supply. The cost to create in this world is reduced everyday with new introductions of blogging software that makes it easier to publish, widgets making it easier to spread ideas, and websites created with templates or pagecreators. One can use Rent A Coder or Odesk to find a developer to work for below minimum wage. In Technorati’s most recent “State Of The Blogosphere” they stated that 122 million blogs have been created since 2002.

There are numerous social networks like Myspace, Facebook, and Bebo with hundreds of millions of profiles. We even have social networks inside of social networks with Facebook and Myspace Apps like “Favorite Friends” and groups. Then we have social networks for segments of people and things like older folks (Eons) and Dogs (Dogster). We even have free software to create any social network for any concern or group with Ning. Even at work we have social networks and media with LinkedIn, and Yammer. When I am off work I’ll switch to Twitter to see who just farted, or had a hot dog, or read a good book. There are social networks in blog comments corralled by companies like Intense Debate. Last, we have social networks for our social networks with SocialThing, FriendFeed, Profilactic, and others.

Being social online is inescapable. My Blackberry tells me my location and my friends’ location with Google Latitude. If I want someone to know what I am doing at that location I’ll use Brightkite or Loopt. I’ll leave a review for later with Yelp.

I can subscribe to just about any stream of information’s RSS feed  or create my own with Dapper if an RSS feed isn’t readily available. More Ovaltine information, please!

It is endless.

We are living in a post scarcity world when it comes to social media. What all the makers of social media aspire for, that which is very scarce, is our attention.

We are told by the personal branding gurus, and I mean no disprespect to people like Gary Vaynerchuk and company, that we should use them all to extend our personal or company brand. Place our avatar on every new social site. Lock up our login name wherever we are so our online presence is continuous (mine is jpmorgan wherever possible). If this takes place, the inevitable erosion of our productive time is predictable. Even social aggregators like Friendfeed display too much information coming from too many sources and still don’t have ALL of my social networking allegiances covered. It isn’t my one stop shop. My attention is still scarce. I don’t even know if I want a one stop shop. I enjoy the experiences of several different sites and find it worth some extra time to float from site to site. My bookmarks are my method of grouping and segmenting.

Following this line of thought, I draw two conclusions:

1) The inevitability of “free” media

2) The eventual consolidation of social presence

Number one needs no explanation as the meme on “free” is well documented. Low cost of production and barriers of entry lead to increased competition and substitutes. When this happens with great scale, prices are squeezed to near free or what might be considered relatively free.

My belief in the eventual consolidation of social presence is, I believe, destined to happen. Why? I believe that personal branding is, more or less, a fad that will be carried out by very few people who execute a personal branding strategy well. Few people will do so because of their scarcity of attention in keeping track of all forms of media. For example, Seth Godin is one of the most respected marketers of our time. He is a champion of the internet. Yet, he does not use Twitter. He doesn’t even have blog comments. His simple mission is to write “remarkable” things on his blog so his ideas spread.

Seth Godin is a marketer. Gary Vaynerchuk is a salesman. There is a difference. A salesman will sell anything to anyone at anytime. A marketer has a specific product for a specific customer who purchases it at a preconceived time and location.

I believe that people will be forced to become smarter and more productive with their time. They will become marketers and not salesman/woman. They will come to know exactly what their product is and exactly who their customer is out of necessity. One can still be successful being a salesperson, but my feeling is that most people do not have the stamina/fortitude/ability to do so and therefore are smarter to plan, target, and attack.

Note: I may be mischaracterizing Gary’s position and if so, that is not intended.

I love numbers as they relate to the economy. A business mentor of mine once said, “Just run the numbers and they will dictate your decision.”

The Wall Street Journal Market Data Center when you can get just about any macroeconomic number you want, as well as stocks, interest rates, etc.

Whether it be US stocks, international stocks, ETFs, commodities, etc, they have everything.

I am just going to be keeping it open as a tab on my browser. Hours of fun are about to ensue.

Just wanted to post my thoughts on Wordpress 2.7.1….I like it.

I am using “Quickpress” and this is a great way to post quickly.

The dashboard is really handy and I like seeing all my WP’s stuff in one spot. It helps me remember drafts I have not posted and other fun things.

Also, I find Dashboard screens sometimes overloaded with information. However, there are screen options that allow me to customize what I see in my Dashboard at any given time.

I have always been a fan of WP minimalism and the color scheme and design definitely came through for me again.

I used a one click upgrade from my host, so installation was a snap!

Congrats to my friends at WP/Automattic.

Just had my first official task completed by a virtual assistant at Odesk and I am very pleased.

I had a young enterprising lady from Indonesia extract some information from websites that I might have done on my own. I paid her $2.78 and hour and I am very pleased.

Some question the ethics of an experiment like this. They might say I am using slave labor, taking advantage of someone, or giving a job to someone that an American could do.

First, it is not “Slavery.” I posted a job and 30+ people responded all vying for the position and competing based on their wage (which they use to bid), how long it will take them, and the quality of work they have done in the past. Far from slavery. They volunteer.

I am not taking advantage of anyone. In China, the average college graduate makes $538 per month in their first year after graduation. That translates to $3.55 an hour if they work a 40 hour work week. In Indonesia, these people must put food on the table anyway they can. For them to earn extra money when they are not working a day job is great for them.

Yes, this is something an American worker can do. However, an American would be much more expensive for the same quality. As Warren Buffet once stated (paraphrasing) “Firms will always seek lower wages for the same quality.” This is why some firms are moving away from China and onto Vietnam and Thailand (there has been an inflation to Chinese wages).

Also, she can work while I am asleep due to the time difference. This is a tremendous plus!

So, these places get a bad rap sometimes, but Odesk does a lot of good in this world.

As most of my friends on Facebook have witnessed, I have posted several videos from my trip to China there.

However, I have wanted for a long time to conduct some viral video experiments using TubeMogul and some other services. I want to study how many views a video gets across several services. I know, I am a dork. In a few days I’ll share my results.

Here is the video, pretty funny, eh? The question remains, is it viral worthy?

The Case Of The Melting Spoon from Josh Morgan on Vimeo.

When college football season ends in Ohio people get the shakes. They will have to wait eight long months before seeing the Buckeyes next season.

In the meantime, the snow brings out the fan in all of us.

All the recent discussion on “stimulus” recently has made for a disastrous degradation in common sense and rational economic theory.

First, it is a myth that government can spend money and spur the economy. This myth is based on Keynesian economics, and more specifically, the Keynesian multiplier. This states that for every dollar the government spends, it has a positive effect worth 1.5 times the initial investment. Simply put, if this were true, why don’t we spend a few more trillion and we’ll be set for life? This is where the argument falters.

Next, increased fuel standards for vehicles are going to be made mandatory if President Obama gets his way. All cars and trucks made in the year 2020 will need to get 35 mpg, or else. This after the the auto industry has one if its worst years in recent history. Now it must shoulder the cost of reengineering its cars and trucks to meet a government imposed standard. I could understand if Putin, Castro, or Chavez made such an order, but we are supposed to live in the United States and shielded from anything remotely close to a planned economy, right?

Finally, the democrat controlled Ohio state government has made clear its intentions to consider a mileage tax. It seems, Ohioans have cut back on their fuel consumption and government revenue from gas taxes is sinking. In order to make up for the lost revenue, they are considering placing a gps device on EVERY vehicle that tracks the mileage and accrues a tax that one pays while at the pump (after your gps device beams the data to the receiver on the pump). I am sure this scheme will bring in LOTS of money, but it will cost Ohioans real dollars. The implementation costs alone are staggering, hundreds of millions of dollars. Not to mention the technological hurdles and equipment upkeep that must be taken into consideration. I thought reducing our fuel consumption was something the government wanted us to do?

Why is it that when a government revenue generating vehicle like the gas tax doesn’t bring in as much revenue we must find a way to replace it with another, government revenue generation vehicle? When there is a retail boom, is there ever a consideration to reduce the sales tax because it brings in more than expected revenues? The answer is no. The government simply finds more ways to spend it.

For an American traveling to China on business for the first time there are some things you should know ahead of time to make your trip more of a success.

1) Tea Drinking

The Chinese love tea. Do not be surprised if you are served tea at a business meeting. I highly suggest you drink it because it is Chinese tradition to share tea in a small ceremony. Not accepting places a cloud over the meeting.

2) Smoking

In America, most states are smoke free. Meaning, no smoking in public buildings, restaurants, etc. China is extremely smoke friendly. Another tradition is to share a cigarette with your host after a meal. Again, this is Chinese tradition and I suggest you take a few puffs no matter if you don’t smoke. This is one more way to connect with your host and ensure good business relations.

3) Traveling

I suggest air travel for all long distance trips within China. The bus and train are not conducive to long distance travel. They are uncomfortable and unsanitary. When traveling within the city, travel by taxi. It is cheap and is the quickest.

4) Hotel

In China, a “5 star” hotel is what we might think of as 3 or 4 star in the US. With that said, I recommend paying a little extra and staying at a familiar name like Hilton, The Four Seasons, etc.

5) Translator

We were lucky enough not to need a translator. When traveling by taxi we simply pointed to a spot on the map and we got there. Our host also spoke English, which was a plus. In another business meeting where our host did not speak English, he provided the translator.

6) Sourcing services and products

I recommend doing this ahead of time via the internet. Sites like EC21 and Ali Baba can help you find companies and businesses of interest. Once you are in country, your internet access might be limited and your time is short.

I just returned from a two week trip in China. The majority of the time we spent in Shanghai and then a few surrounding cities. As an American visiting for the first time, I had a few preconceived notions of what China might be like, but I was wrong.

1) China is communist and capitalism is viewed as evil

In China, I couldn’t believe the entrepreneurial nature of the people. In Shanghai, there were so many shops, street vendors, bars, restaurants, etc. This is not a government excercising control over business. Although communist, China has decided to open up their economic system to some free market controls. The keyword is “some.” They will manipulate their currency and/or duty tariff levels to protect their businesses more than many other countries.

This is the scene inside a clothing wholesale mall. This is where clothes were sold in bulk to be resold in smaller shops. As you can see, the consumer culture lives. It seemed as though every store carried the same style clothing.

Chinese Clothing Wholesale Mall

2) China must be clean because of all the government oversight

Again, wrong. China is a very dirty place. The air, the streets, the insides of buildings. If you are outside for a few hours, you feel filthy.

If I were a global warming protester, I would set up shop in China. The smog is THAT bad.

The level of protection when it comes to food is non-existent. I didn’t dare eat at a street vendor’s stand. I can remember walking down an alley one night after dinner and came across a man going through garbage. I asked our host what he was doing and our host replied, “He is gathering food for his pig.” In the middle of an 8-million person city, livestock is quite common on the streets.

We were going to breakfast at our hotel one morning and out of no where we hear, “Cock a doodle do!” A rooster was preparing to meet his maker back in the kitchen. They like “fresh” food in China. Needless to say, I lost my appetite.

I’ll have more on the trip in future posts.